Click the link for a video of the talk! –>
Forecasting or projecting involves a wide range of timescales and associated assumptions about human behavior. At one end of the spectrum are very-near-term physical forecasts (like the weather) and at another end are long-run, scenario-based projections (like global emissions pathways). Ecological forecasts span a range of timescales and assumptions about human behavior. The main message of this talk was that in developing and thinking about “ecological forecasting” as a discipline, we must be clear about whether and to what extent a forecast is incorporating human behavior.